Us Election Prognostication

Pei wrote something to me the other day that sparked some interest:

You think Kerry's flip-flopping will do him in?

Specifically, he means John Kerry, Democratic nominee for President of the USA.  If he had asked me this six months ago, I would've told him that the Dems (or rather, those who voted in the Democratic primaries) are making a HUGE mistake in selecting him as their candidate.  His record really is atrocious as far as switching sides on issues.  Not to mention, his service in Vietnam is sketchy at best.  The guy was over there for 6 months, won three medals, and upon returning to the US, actively protested against the war.  He threw his medals over the fence at the White House to protest what he thought was an unjust war.  It was found out later on that they weren't actually his medals, they were ribbons from another serviceman! Kerry's still got his medals safely at home!  He is a political opportunist of the highest calibre.  He feels which way the wind blows and tries to follow the current, but to me he seems like a complete and utter phony.  Now, if someone has different views than me, I can accept that.  In fact, I respect a guy who holds to his convictions, even though they may differ from my own.  But with Kerry, you never really know what you are getting.  As den Beste  once put it: "I can't say I disagree with him, because I don't even know what he stands for"!  His viewpoints whirl around faster than a Kansas tornado. 

Do I think his flip-flopping will do him in?  Sadly, it hasn't done him any harm so far.  Actually, I should qualify that statement, Bush has not helped his own cause much lately, and that has shifted the focus off of Kerry.  I'm not sure what the President's campaign strategy is, but I thin his advisors need to be smacked upside the head!  I should be seeing advertisements DELUXE about Kerry's record.  Also, the President has been pandering a lot lately, in what seems to be an attempt to win votes.  This is tragic in the sense that he is alienating himself from those who voted for him last time.  There are tons of right wingers who are pissed right off with the Prez.  He should be a shoo-in to win the election, instead, he is trailing in most polls, and if you look at Scott Elliott's numbers, if the election were held today, Kerry would be President, winning almost 51% of the popular vote, and 291 electoral seats.   I recommend that everyone check out Scott's site if you are interesting in tracking the US election.  He views polls from every state and compiles them in an easy-to-follow format.  He also has good commentary and fascinating insights in the US political system.  You will note that his site as been added to my blogroll, under American Pride.  Check it out.

All that being said, I think Kerry could actually pull this thing out.  I'm totally hoping for Bush, because I like the fact that he didn't pander to the UN on the Iraq issue (not to mention he is the closest thing to right wing out there).  Finally someone who stands up and takes action!  If Chretian were half the man Bush is, Canada would not be the socialist shunthole it is today.  Let's see... no military, a failing medical system, support for democracy in words only, and separatists left, right, and centre (both politically and geographically)!  What a great country to live in! 

Sheesh, I keep going off on tangents.  Okay, here's the deal: in my heart of hearts I think Bush is going to win the election, and I have said that since the beginning.  But there are enough people in the US who are pissed at Bush for acting like a complete clown.  If he doesn't really smarten up in the next couple of months, he'll be the second one-term President named Bush.  Pray that Ralph Nader's  campaign takes off!  Lots of people who would vote democratic will give their vote to Nader, and that may just be enough to help the Prez (as it did in 2000).